Investigating land subsidence hazard in Rafsanjan City using field evidence and assessing its progression risk based on groundwater data

10.48306/juem.2026.577867.1149
Abstract
Land subsidence is one of the most significant geotechnical hazards in arid and semi-arid regions globally, primarily triggered by the over-extraction of groundwater resources. Rafsanjan County, a major urban and agricultural center in Kerman Province, has experienced widespread signs of land subsidence in recent years, including building cracking, uneven settlement of structures, and damage to urban infrastructure. This study investigates the effects and risk of land subsidence in Rafsanjan by integrating field observations, documentation of structural damage, spatial data on water wells, and information on groundwater extraction rates. Spatial analysis of damaged structures indicates that the highest severity of damage is concentrated in areas where structures are built on soils with higher density and strength compared to adjacent lands, with the damage attributed to differential subsidence. Conversely, areas underlain by relatively uniform, coarse-grained deposits have experienced less damage due to uniform subsidence. This study demonstrates that the rate and trend of increasing structural damage and subsidence intensify towards areas with a higher density of operational wells and greater volumes of groundwater extraction. This spatial correlation underscores the significant role of human activities, particularly the over-exploitation of groundwater aquifers, in the occurrence and exacerbation of land subsidence in Rafsanjan County.

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Articles in Press, Corrected Proof
Available Online from 16 May 2026

  • Receive Date 24 February 2026
  • Revise Date 29 April 2026
  • Accept Date 10 May 2026
  • First Publish Date 16 May 2026
  • Publish Date 16 May 2026