Systemic Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Environmental Regulations in Iran’s Oil and Gas Industry Using a Causal Loop Model and Reform Strategies

Mavali, Seyed Raed; Taleghani, Seyedeh Atena

doi:10.48306/juem.2025.529167.1077

Systemic Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Environmental Regulations in Iran’s Oil and Gas Industry Using a Causal Loop Model and Reform Strategies

Authors

Seyed Raed Mavali ¹

Seyedeh Atena Taleghani ²

¹ Legal and Contracts Manager, Amir Kabir Petrochemical Company, Mahshahr, Khuzestan, Iran

² M.Sc. Student, Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Petroleum Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

https://doi.org/10.48306/juem.2025.529167.1077

Abstract

Despite the existence of high-level policies and environmental regulations, Iran’s legal framework governing the oil and gas industry lacks institutional coherence and effective enforcement. This qualitative study employs Causal Loop Diagramming (CLD) to analyze the structural and behavioral dynamics of the current environmental regulatory system in this strategic sector. After reviewing key documents and extracting core variables, a CLD model representing the existing system was developed using Vensim software. The analysis reveals that the system is driven by reinforcing negative feedback loops—such as weak regulatory enforceability, institutional overlap, the prioritization of short-term economic gains over environmental obligations, and the absence of integrated performance indicators. These dynamics hinder the implementation of environmental laws even when formal policies are in place. Based on the systemic behavior observed in the model, the study proposes seven policy recommendations, including enhancing transparency, developing unified indicators, redefining institutional relationships, and strengthening expert and media capacities. The findings highlight that structural reforms are essential for achieving environmental sustainability in the oil and gas industry. Overall, this study demonstrates the utility of system dynamics modeling as an effective tool for identifying institutional bottlenecks and guiding the formulation of coherent environmental governance policies.

Keywords

Life Cycle Assessment

Causal Loop Diagrams

Environmental Policy

Iran’s Oil and Gas Sector

Institutional and Legal Sustainability

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