Investigating land subsidence hazard in Rafsanjan City using field evidence and assessing its progression risk based on groundwater data

Abstract
Land subsidence is one of the most significant geotechnical hazards in arid and semi-arid regions globally, primarily triggered by the over-extraction of groundwater resources. Rafsanjan County, a major urban and agricultural center in Kerman Province, has experienced widespread signs of land subsidence in recent years, including building cracking, uneven settlement of structures, and damage to urban infrastructure. This study investigates the effects and risk of land subsidence in Rafsanjan by integrating field observations, documentation of structural damage, spatial data on water wells, and information on groundwater extraction rates. Spatial analysis of damaged structures indicates that the highest severity of damage is concentrated in areas where structures are built on soils with higher density and strength compared to adjacent lands, with the damage attributed to differential subsidence. Conversely, areas underlain by relatively uniform, coarse-grained deposits have experienced less damage due to uniform subsidence. This study demonstrates that the rate and trend of increasing structural damage and subsidence intensify towards areas with a higher density of operational wells and greater volumes of groundwater extraction. This spatial correlation underscores the significant role of human activities, particularly the over-exploitation of groundwater aquifers, in the occurrence and exacerbation of land subsidence in Rafsanjan County.

Keywords


1.حصارکی زاده، ع؛ یمانی، م.؛ گورابی، ا. (1403). تحلیل جامع فرونشست زمین در ایران: مروری سیستماتیک بر وضعیت وجود. پژوهش های ژئومورفولوژی کمی، 3: 45-23.
2.مهرابی، ع.؛ کریمی، ص.؛ خالصی، م. (1403). تحلیل فضایی فرونشست دشت جیرفت با استفاده از تکنیک پیکسل های کوهرنس (CPT). جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی، 89: 116-99.
3.مهرابی، ع.؛ غضنفرپور، ح. (1398). پایش روند تغییرات ارتفاعی سطح زمین در شهرکرمان و تعیین مناطق پرخطر با استفاده از تصاویر SENTINEL  و  ASAR1  راداری. جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی، 30: 182 167.
4.شریفی کیا، م. (1391). تعین میزان و دامنه فرونشست زمین به کمک روش تداخل سنجی راداری (D-InSAR) در دشت نوق-بهرمان. آمایش فضا و ژئوماتیک، 16(3): 55-77
5. Galloway, D. L., & Burbey, T. J. (2011). Review: Regional land subsidence accompanying groundwater extraction. Hydrogeology Journal, 19(8), 1459–1486.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-011-0775-5
6. Arian, M., Feizi, F., & Ghorashi, M. (2020). Land subsidence hazard in Iran: Causes, impacts and mitigation strategies. Environmental Earth Sciences, 79(3), 1–15.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8764-3
7.Motagh, M., Shamshiri, R., Haghshenas Haghighi, M., Wetzel, H., Akbari, B., Nahanandchi, H., Roessner, S., Arabi, S. (2017). quantifying groundwater exploitation induced subsidence in the rafsanjan plain, southeastern Iran, using InSAR time-series and in situ measurements. Engineering Geology, 218 (134-151).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2017.01.011
8.Poland, J. F., & Davis, G. H. (1969). Land subsidence due to withdrawal of fluids. Geological Society of America Reviews in Engineering Geology, 2, 187–269.
9.Herrera-García, G., Ezquerro, P., Tomás, R., Béjar-Pizarro, M., López-Vinielles, J., Rossi, M., & Fernández, J. (2021). Mapping and monitoring land subsidence using InSAR techniques. Remote Sensing, 13(4), 1–27. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13040647

  • Receive Date 24 February 2026
  • Revise Date 29 April 2026
  • Accept Date 10 May 2026
  • First Publish Date 10 May 2026
  • Publish Date 21 March 2026